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Builder Luncheon Recap, What’s Ahead for 2022, and More!

By admin_leng | Published February 24, 2022

During The Builder and Developer Luncheon on February 24, 2022, I compared the building/housing industry to a Nascar race. With the hot market…we are all speeding down the track at high speeds. Everything is going smoothly. Maybe too smooth.

This is exactly how I feel the real estate industry is going right now. The housing market is setting records every way we look at it! Inventory is extremely low, with bidding wars to top it off! As a real estate agent, one cannot work enough hours to keep up with the demand. Everything is moving so very fast (especially price increases), that one cannot help but wonder; how long can it last? When does a tire pop and a multi-car crash happen? Eventually the home prices will have to meet the rising interest rates. Should you pump your brakes or keep your foot on the gas?

Currently, the active single family home inventory is 1,015 homes; a number that is very similar to last year at this time. The shocking fact is that, out of those active homes, 726 are new construction. That is 71%! Overall, there are only 289 resale homes on the MLS equating to a 1.1 months’ supply of total inventory. New construction holds a 3.7 months’ supply.

The fact that 71% of today’s active single family homes are new builds is not typical. Looking back, from 2014-2020, only 37% of the active inventory homes were new builds. That is a tremendous difference! At an even closer look, comparing February 2021 to February 2022, the percentage of new construction inventory increased 10% from 61%. Only time will tell us if inventory will go back to previous averages or remain a trend for years to come.

New construction prices of single family homes increased by 9% year over year for 2021.  When compared to 2022, there was a 14% increase year over year, making this month’s average selling price $432,000! The dramatic increase in the prices of building materials made this jump expected and predictable. The blessing to our industry has been the low interest rates, paired with strong demand. This has allowed buyers to afford homes even with the exalted building costs.

Change is coming, it is just a matter of when. Interest rates are beginning to rise, in an attempt to slow inflation, making affordability more of a problem for potential buyers. This is going to be at the forefront of the minds for the foreseeable future. A time will come when construction costs and interest rates reach a threshold that slows consumer demand.

Other factors that will lead to the slowing of consumer demand include the increase in wage growth, rises commodity prices and the recovering of supply chain issues. The idea that homeowners will be sitting with record high home equity is also something to be considered. Market inventory will be extremely low, fluctuating with the new buying trends inspired by the pandemic. 

When speculating on the future, it is important to remember the past. Take the average scenario from 2021, for example. In 2021, average new construction of a single family home sale price was $372,000 with average interest rates of 2.65% so P&I was $1,500 (based on a 30 year conventional loan with 5% down). Today, average sale price is $432,000 with average interest rates of 4.25%.This makes the estimated P&I to be $2,125. The difference in monthly payments being $625, or a 42% increase!

In conclusion, the pending single family homes at the end of Q1 were 1,735, compared to 1,898 homes in 2021 and 1,197 in 2020. Pending market is strong but  at total of 150 homes from last year. Of those currently pending, 43% are new construction. Homes sold in Q1 registered at recording breaking numbers, yet again. 11,153 single family homes closed so far this year, of which 21% were new construction.

 

As we prepare for Q2, the question remains: does one put the pedal to the medal or brake for a cautionary turn ahead? What is going to happen in the housing market and how much longer can it go full speed ahead? One thing can be certain, no road is smooth forever.

 

Take a look at my full snapshot report

 

Quick Links to Documents:

Kalen Ludwig builder Luncheon Presentation

Full snapshot report

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Q4 2021: 2021 ENDS IN HISTORIC YEAR FOR HOME BUYING

By admin_leng | Published January 27, 2022

A recent article in the Des Moines Register perfectly sums up 2021. In the article, Ted Weaver (past president of the Des Moines Area Association of Realtors) states, “It was a historic year for home sales by any measure.” And we agree, 100%.  The Des Moines real estate market was on fire, not only in the fourth quarter but for the entire year. Record breaking sales and record breaking construction have dominated market conversations for months now. Homes of all types flew off the market. Buyers were hustling to make offers, most finding themselves compromising “must haves” simply to be able to get a home before someone else snagged it up. It has been quite the experience but we should […]

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Q3 2021: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By admin_leng | Published October 18, 2021

Temperatures are dropping, days are feeling shorter, and our farmers are harvesting their fields. Fall has come to the Des Moines metro and the third quarter of 2021 housing market is wrapping up very similarly to the second quarter. We still have a hot market, high prices and a drought of inventory. What is driving this, you ask? Record low mortgage rates and a scarcity of inventory. Home ownership is within reach for a large number of prospective purchasers as our economy continues to support work-from-home options. This is directly fueling an increase in housing demand. Those in the Des Moines metropolitan areas want detached single-family homes that provide greater living space and separation from adjacent properties. As Q3 comes […]

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Hot Summer and Real Estate Market: Q2 Update

By admin_leng | Published July 14, 2021

Can you believe we are already halfway through the year? Time’s flying as businesses are opening back up, giving us a sense of normalcy. This season we’re back with our friends and family and enjoying summer activities. Speaking of summer — it’s been a HOT one! And the real estate industry has been following very similar trends to this year’s summer forecast.  Hot, high temps, and we’re in a drought: the market remains hot, prices are high and we are in a drought with home inventory!  Though lumber prices are slowly declining, prices still remain high; we have a shortage of material; and also are seeing labor shortages — all of this plays a factor in the increased prices of […]

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Q1 2021 is HOT despite record freezing temps!

By admin_leng | Published February 26, 2021

The ending of the first quarter of 2021 marks the one year mark for the global coronavirus pandemic. Who could have predicted we would also be in the one of the robust housing markets any of us have ever experienced? What brought about this market, we ask ourselves? Was it the extremely low interest rates? Could it be the stimulus money that was introduced into our economy? Is the work from home requirements that our workforce was forced to accommodate? We may never fully understand all the factors that got us to where we are today but everyone can agree; this is uncharted territory for the housing market, both in new construction and resale. When looking at 19 different communities […]

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Des Moines Real Estate in 2020

By admin_leng | Published January 15, 2021

“What a year 2020 has been!” How many times have we all heard that before? Yet it always seems to be so very, very true.  It definitely applies when we look at the housing market!  2020 saw phenomenal sales for new construction homes in the Des Moines area, representing 20% of all single family home sales in 2020.  The last time we reached a number even somewhat close to this was in 2007 at 19% market share.  A truly remarkable year 2020 has been. What is driving this consumer desire for newly built homes? The Urban Land Institute* refers to the current boom as “the great American move”, which was ignited by the pandemic, creating a growing desire to live […]

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How has the pandemic effected the housing market?

By admin_leng | Published October 15, 2020

Can a pandemic be the best thing to happen to the housing market? Interesting enough, it can be! The home building and residential real estate market is booming. 2020 has set a record for the highest number of new construction homes sold in more than a decade. This is going to be a record year for real estate sales! Amidst this unprecedented time, certain economic sectors are struggling, unemployment is high, and construction costs and supply chain issues are a daily problem. At the same time, interest rates are at an all time low and the market is begging for inventory. No one expected a quarter like this, yet alone a year like this! Earlier this spring, many speculated that […]

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Housing Market is HOT Despite COVID-19 Pandemic

By admin_leng | Published July 21, 2020

Summer is upon us and not just the weather is hot; the housing market is HOT! In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the second quarter housing market numbers show that now is a great time to both sell and buy a house. Overall, there is a lack of homes for sale while at the same time, interest rates are very low. These factors together make these summer months the time to move. Sellers will see quick sales while buyers can take advantage of small monthly mortgage payments. When comparing July single family homes for sale 2019 verses 2020, there are 862 less houses available. This is a 36% market reduction, which includes resales and new construction homes. Looking at […]

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Single Family Home Sales Increase from 2019

By admin_leng | Published April 28, 2020

COVID-19 is upon us and the population is quarantined at home. However, it seems that many are feeling that now is the time to find a new home. Customers are taking advantage of online research tools and non-traditional ways of buying and selling property. Interest rates continue to remain low, making this a great time to buy. Kalen Ludwig Real Estate Specialists are practicing social distancing and helping customers in unique ways to keep up with the demand. Single family home sales are up by 116 homes when comparing data from April 2020 (2279 homes) to that of April 2019 (2163 homes). New construction sales are up a total of 43 homes when compared to the same time frame last year. […]

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Economic Update with Elliot Eisenberg

By admin_leng | Published April 02, 2020

Thank you to Elliot Eisenberg for joining us to discuss the impact COVID-19 is having on the real estate industry, and economy as a whole. If you missed the call, or would like to replay the call, you can do so below.

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Economic Update with Elliot Eisenber, Hosted by Kalen Ludwig

By admin_leng | Published March 27, 2020

We know questions about the economy — especially in the housing market — is on many people’s minds during this unprecedented time in our history. We are excited to have internationally acclaimed economist Elliot Eisenberg join Kalen Ludwig on April 2nd to discuss development, new construction and the housing industry as a whole. We’d love to get as many of your questions answered, so we ask that you provide them to us in advance. Email them to Kalen Ludwig at kalen@peoplescompany.com. ~~~~ Full Meeting and Dial-In Information Topic: Economic Update with Elliot Eisenberg, Hosted by Kalen Ludwig Time: Apr 2, 2020 01:00 PM Central Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/345558691 Meeting ID: 345 558 691 One tap mobile […]

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Continuing to work for you amidst COVID-19

By admin_leng | Published March 23, 2020

We understand that your housing needs — whether you are buying or selling — doesn’t stop in the face of this pandemic; especially when mortgage rates are at a steady low. Rest assured, we won’t stop working for you and our number one priority at Kalen Ludwig Real Estate Specialists is your health and safety. We are happy to assist you in smart, private showings. We also are equipped with hand sanitizer, gloves, and everything you need giving you added peace of mind. You won’t even have to leave the comfort of your home with our virtual tour options. Whatever virtual platform you prefer to meet on, we are ready and prepared. Stay safe and healthy! We are here for you […]

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Q1 2020: DES MOINES METRO HOUSING SNAPSHOT

By admin_leng | Published February 26, 2020

Earlier this month, the groundhog told us “spring is coming” as he crept out of his burrow after his long winter sleep.  Spring, indeed, is coming and for the real estate and homebuilding industries this is an exciting time of year! We left off in January looking ahead to 2020 with mixed expectations as some were feeling there was great potential laying ahead while others felt a market slow down could be predicted.  As we approach the end of February 2020 and let the data do the talking, it seems the optimists were right and there IS great potential to come.  Total active listings has decreased and mortgage rates have stayed low. To begin, let’s look at the Des Moines-area […]

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Q4 2019: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published January 20, 2020

It’s a wrap! Now that 2019 is behind us, it’s a good time to take a look back at the performance of our Des Moines Metro housing market last year. From recent conversations I’ve had with leaders in the real estate and homebuilding industries, there seems to be a mixed bag of opinions about the state of the market and expectations for the coming year. Some feel that they are the busiest they have ever been and see GREAT POTENTIAL for 2020. Others are feeling a bit slower than previous years and see signs of a slower real estate market. As we start peeling back the data, what we can see right away is an overall low supply that has […]

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Q3 2019: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published October 25, 2019

Like it or not, autumn has arrived and old man winter is fast approaching in Central Iowa. Speaking of crazy Iowa weather, it has actually played a very interesting role in this year’s real estate sales and market activity. Excessive rainfall in recent months helped turn some building sites into impromptu slip-and-slides, causing delays in construction and contributing to a lower-than-expected number of housing starts. Developers, too, haven’t been able to get in all the plats they had hoped and many are playing catch up following a super wet summer and spring. Currently, interest rates, talk of future recession, and a dip in home sales from prior years are each at the forefront of everyone’s mind. In reality, weather conditions […]

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Q2 2019: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published July 15, 2019

There’s some welcome news in today’s market for buyers and sellers ready to make the most of the summertime house hunting and homebuilding season. MORTGAGE RATES dropped since April, and are currently at the lowest levels we have seen for over 18 months. So the market is seeing some traction as more buyers are showing an interest in making offers, due to the improved affordability! As of July 1, the total number of active single-family homes on the Des Moines Metro Market, including re-sales and new construction homes, had increased 5.9 percent to 2,370, compared with a year earlier. When you single out the active inventory of new construction single-family homes, we actually saw a decrease from 853 a year […]

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Q1 2019: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published March 01, 2019

The number of single-family homes listed in the Des Moines Metro inched slightly upward in 2018, as sales growth slowed and the affordability of new construction contributed significantly to our present market conditions. There are currently 2,132 active single-family homes on the Des Moines market, translating into a 2.8-month supply and an approximate increase of 8.7 percent from a year ago. Given that a six-months supply reflects stability, we have continued to view the Des Moines Metro through the lens of a seller’s market, especially in price points below where builders are able to provide inventory. What we are seeing today is the tale of two markets, including a resolute “resale” market with the majority of listings under the $300,000 […]

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Q4 2018: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published January 16, 2019

The start of a new year is always a great time for developers, builders and real estate professionals to reflect on the past and start mapping out the future. Two-thousand-and-nineteen is going to be a year of change as national homebuilders enter the Des Moines Metro and with affordability and rising interest rates being a concern. Personally, I get excited when I think about the validation of a strong market, one that is strong enough to attract the attention and confidence of national builders. At the same time, now is the time to be more intentional than ever with collecting and analyzing data on what is selling – to help determine where and at which price points to build. When […]

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Q3 2018: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published October 17, 2018

The word on the street when it comes to housing is that the national market may have peaked and is starting to cool down a bit. At the same time, according to one national article on CNBC’s “Realty Check,” it’s important to follow all the facts as inventory, price point and location each play key roles. IN THEIR WORDS: “The housing recovery isn’t over, it just feels like it…” Following a period of substantial growth, it is a great time to reflect on the local housing market – where strong demographics (the region grew 1.8 percent to 645,911 residents in 2017) and a sizzling labor market (2.5 percent unemployment rate) factor in. Let’s assess our Des Moines Metro housing statistics […]

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Q2 2018: DES MOINES METRO HOUSING SNAPSHOT

By Kalen | Published July 17, 2018

It’s been a scorching summer in the Des Moines Metro! Has the real estate market been hot as well? Read on to get some inside information on how Q2 in the Des Moines Metro stacked up. Total active single family homes as of July 1st is 2,239. This is up just slightly from 2,154 a year ago at this time. Thirty eight percent of the homes on the market are NEW CONSTRUCTION listings. In comparison, at the end of Q1 2018 46.5% of the available inventory was new construction. Total inventory has been low for several years, so this is not a bad thing to have a few more homes listed in our market. A stable market is considered to […]

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Q1 2018: Des Moines Metro Housing Snapshot

By Kalen | Published March 01, 2018

With a total of 1,961 active listings of single family homes, translating into a 2.5 months supply, this ​LOW LEVEL of inventory reflects a trend we’ve been tracking over the past five years​,​ and appeared to continue in Q1 2018. Heading into March, there were 1,257 pending sales of single family homes in the Des Moines ​Metro​, or 74 fewer pending sales than a year ago. The ​TOTAL MONTHS SUPPLY – six months is considered to be indicative of a stable market – has hovered around two to three months over the past several years, and continues in that range today. The overall inventory has continued to drop and listings of ​NEW CONSTRUCTION homes are growing. Notably, of the total […]

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